heybuzzkill

How the hell did we get from this...

...to this

...and now this?

So just one more day until the craziest regular season game I can recall….At the begining of the season and up to last week, I thought that all the attention would be on Favre and the Vikings, making it ripe for a Pack upset. But since the regular season started, the Packers have yet to show the promise in the preseason. And after last week’s miracle (lucky) Favre throw my confidence in a Packer victory has been in a huge decline.

Looking back at Favre’s history in big, crazy games could be a good indicator on what will happen Monday. Throughout his career Favre seems to play better and calmer the more fucked up things are around him, or if he takes a couple big hits….But this is a completely different Favre now, its like he’s turned into Darth Vadar now. He gets up really slow after a big hit, and I think he’s pretty spent after last week.  (The right coaching move here would be to limit Favre’s impact on the game because you have AP and an awesome D, but this is also Brad Childress we’re talking about)

Here are a few of the crazy, emotional games in Favre’s career
1999 Holmgren comes back to Lambeau – Just one year removed from Packer head coach, Favre’s mentor comes back to Green Bay. I remember this game starting ok for Brett, but then it headed in a downward spiral quick. In my mind, other than the 2000 playoff game versus the Rams, this is probably Favre’s worst game. The Seahawks weren’t even a good team that year. There was also a fake lambeau leap by an ex-packer (Derrick Mayes). Favre finishes 14-35 with 180 yards, with 1 TD and 4 INTs. He was also sacked four times and fumbled at least twice. I remember thinking after this game that Favre might be done and how he could’ve had like 8 or 9 picks. There were a few dropped INTs by the Seahawks. Plus he didn’t even finish this game, Ray Rho took him out in favor of Matt Hasselbeck. Final score Seattle 27, Green Bay 7.

1999 First game of post-Holmgren Era – This is an up and down game for Favre but he finishes in fantastic fashion. This was probably one of the best games I saw in person with Favre leading a last minute drive for the go ahead TD. Afterwards Favre was in tears and just a mess, obviously this was very emotional game for him. He finshes: 28-47 for 333 yards, with 4 TDs and 3 INTs. (And I believe two of those picks were off of tipped passes)

2003 Irv Favre Passes – This game has been discussed thoroughly over the years. Favre was probably at his best this game, just perfect…no screwed up passes or overthrown balls. He was solid and his receivers made big plays too. At the time, I thought this team was Super Bowl bound after this win. Favre finished 22 of 30 for 399 yards, with 4 TDs and 0 Ints.

There were also several other games that were emotionally charged for Favre. Like when his wife was diagnosed with cancer, his best friend died, playing the Cowboys in Dallas or the Vikings at the dome. And I won’t even get into the playoff games…So its either a super charged Favre who gets too amped up and karma hits him hard, causing him to have a horrible game…Or he is ultra cool about it and has stunning numbers leading the Vikings. But I think for Monday’s game its either going to be him playing really well or having little impact and Adrian Peterson having a gigantic game.

Looking at the matchups is probably a better assessment than just the Favre factor.

• RBs = Vikings
• QBs = Push
• TEs = Push
• WRs = Packers
• O-line = Vikings
• D-line = Vikings
• LBs = Push
• DBs = Packers
• Special Teams = Push (Pery Harvin and Will Blackmom are a wash, packers coverage probably better but vikings punting and longwell are better)
• Coaches = Packers

And I’d say the weakest link right now for Green Bay is by far their offensive line. Which isn’t good going against one of the best D-lines in football. On the other hand, I think the Packers receivers have a pretty big edge against the Vikings D backs. So the key for Green Bay will be running game, protection of Aaron Rodgers, and slowing Adrian Peterson as much as possible…forcing Favre to have to do something. The key for the Vikings will be special teams, turnovers, and keeping Favre in check.

As I forecasted in my season predictons, I give the Vikings the edge here. But this will be a crazy game, full of big hits and maybe even a couple fights. I’m looking forward to seeing the Packer 3-4 D get some hits on Favre. He needs to feel the Packer’s rage.

Vikings 31 Packers 23

Crazy outcome: If Favre has to do too much and the Packers get some lucky breaks…Packers 38, Vikings 17.